Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Ah, my... . It appears that life in the Middle East may get even MORE interesting.

Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf seems to be on the way out. So think some in the U.S. intelligence agencies. There seems to be conflicting points of view as to the likelihood of a takeover of the Pakistani government by Islamic radicals. One assessment I saw said the likelihood of that happening is small. I certainly hope so. That certainly would not be good news, if that were to happen. All these theoretical discussions about what Iran might do with an atomic bomb, if and when they are ever able to make one, would immediately become moot. Pakistan already has several, and has set at least one off in their game of nuclear “one-upmanship” they played with India a few years ago. You think Afghanistan was a problem before we invaded? A nuclear-armed Pakistan in control of people, like Bin Laden, who really DO support terrorism against the west would be a real nightmare.

And I have seen several reports that the Turkish military has been making raids into northern Iraq, against what they are terming “Kurdish separatists”, or some such. This could very easily escalate into something incredibly dangerous and difficult to control. Could the U.S. end up on the receiving end of a firefight with the Turks, who are our nominal allies in most other regards? Possibly. Stranger things have happened. I doubt that the U.S. and Turkey would become involved in a shooting war against each other. However, this has the possibility of destabilizing northern Iraq, which was one of our few bright spots in that exceedingly nasty little war. The Turkish army is nothing to laugh about, and they mean business. Turkey would not allow a separate Kurdistan to be set up on their southern border, and they seem to have little patience for a safe haven for Kurdish separatists. It could possibly become another Lebanon-like situation, with a powerful military of a neighboring country trying to knock out a small but determined band of insurgents intent on doing the larger, more powerful nation harm. Just ask Israel how well this has worked out for them in recent years.

If there is a more fitting metaphor for George Bush and his lust to do his dad one better than Pandora’s Box, I certainly can’t think of it. Who knows what Junior and his enablers like Cheney, Rumsfeld, Feith, and Wolfowitz may have helped let loose in the world?

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